哈萨克斯坦央行前行长：中国对亚洲复苏很关键
全球疫情形势依然严峻。据美国霍普金斯大学数据，截至北京时间4月2日上午6时，全球新冠肺炎确诊病例已突破93万例，逾4.6万人死亡。
疫情下，全球经济空前承压。在过去的一个多月里，全球多国股市频繁熔断，资本市场动荡不安，经济活动受到疫情影响停滞不前，国际货币基金组织等机构纷纷下调世界经济增速预估。
经济合作及发展组织（OECD）在最新发布的《全球经济展望报告》中将2020年全球经济增速预期从新冠疫情暴发前的2.9%下调至2.4%，并警告称，若新冠疫情持续时间更长，强度更大，可能会使2020年全球经济增长率降至1.5%。
穆迪全球宏观经济研究团队指出，由于新冠病毒的威胁，经济活动将受到限制，人们信心下降、预期收入降低、商业投资降低、就业出现紧缩、经济出现衰退、消费者的支出也将同步下降，会对GDP增长造成永久性的打击。“至少到第二季度，全球经济都将急剧收缩。”
全球性经济衰退真的到来了吗？疫情对全球经济的冲击又会持续多久？
阿斯塔纳金融中心主席、哈萨克斯坦央行前行长凯拉特·克利姆别托夫近日在接受中新社国是直通车的专访中指出，新冠疫情对世界经济短期造成毁灭性的冲击，其长期影响是多方面的，也呈现出一些正面的溢出效应，如催生出诸多基于线上服务的经济新形态。
疫情对全球经济的
长期影响是多方面的
国是直通车：您如何评估目前新冠疫情对全球经济造成的影响？
凯拉特·克利姆别托夫：由新冠病毒引起的疫情大流行对全球经济产生了重大影响。由于各国政府正集中精力解决更紧迫的公共健康危机问题，疫情带来的短期经济影响似乎是毁灭性的，对此我们几乎无能为力。
目前形势有些严峻，且短中期前景不太乐观，然而也存在一些溢出效应。随着人们削减开支、改变行为，基于提供在线服务的新产品和商业模式有了发展空间。我们已经看到在线娱乐、交付、视频会议和任务管理服务的激增。我现在不得不在家工作，而且大部分时间都在使用在线会议来分配任务。学校和大学也开始转向在线教育。
向这些方式的转变不是进化，而是在巨大外部事件冲击下的结果。人们正在适应新的学习、工作、娱乐和消费商品和服务的方式。这场大流行迟早会被击败，但新技术和新商业模式会留存下来，它们将颠覆许多现有的一些机构，也将创造新的机会，特别是对反应速度更快的国家而言。新兴市场将有机会更快地采用新技术。
国是直通车：新冠疫情对世界经济的长期影响会呈现出什么样的特点？
凯拉特·克利姆别托夫：长期的影响是多方面的，我将尽量强调最重要的影响。
第一、全球需求的下降意味着新兴市场经济增长前景的黯淡，以及之后这些国家会出现的资本外流状况，尽管世界上有大量的融资。大多数国家都在实行扩张性的货币和财政政策，有大量的货币在流通，虽然在短期内，货币没有流向投资，而是以现金的形式被保存。
第二、从中期来看，尽管资本并不短缺，我们将看到更多的不确定性以及投资的低迷：这次危机将与2008-2009年的金融危机大不相同。好消息是，中国已经开始从衰退中复苏，而且正在缓慢恢复，同时西方市场对美国和欧洲的大规模刺激计划反应积极，但我们仍需观察其效果是否能够得以持续。
第三、（全球）供应链不会立即恢复，这意味着经济活动和国际贸易的持续低迷。在国际贸易恢复到以前的水平之前，我们只有等待疫情的结束。对于许多国家，尤其是依赖出口的发展中国家市场，这将意味着其将面临资金的短缺，因此需要进行相应的调整。同时发生的石油价格战争也将给这些国家带来压力。然而，低油价将使中国和其他石油进口国受益。
国是直通车：当疫情得到遏制后，您认为世界经济将如何复苏？
凯拉特·克利姆别托夫：我想特别指出的是，新冠疫情大流行后的经济状况将会得到显著的重建。此次危机是一个大规模的市场再分配的窗口期，因为（全球）供应链遭到破坏，之后新的贸易路线将被建立，新的参与者也将由此涌现。或许我们将面临类似大萧条时期的局面，国家在与市场关系中的角色也将发生变化。
还有另一种看待当前形势的角度。近10年来，我们一直处于牛市，这可能是现代史上最长的牛市。市场调整是不可避免的，因此市场对新冠疫情大流行的反应如此剧烈并不奇怪，这也意味着市场迟早会做出反应，回到正常状态。目前我们已经在西方市场看到了一些积极的反应。
中国对于亚洲区域
经济的复苏十分重要
眼下亚洲的疫情形势有所缓解，中国、日本和韩国的疫情均得到有效控制。但另一方面，亚洲经济体增长面临多重考验。
亚洲开发银行在近期发布的《新型冠状病毒疫情对亚洲发展中国家的经济影响》分析报告中指出，目前仍在持续的疫情将对亚洲发展中经济体的诸多方面产生影响，如内需下降，旅游和商务出行减少，贸易和生产下滑，供应中断；经济损失规模将取决于目前仍难以预测的疫情走向。
评级机构标准普尔也发表报告称，新型肺炎疫情冲击亚太地区商业环境及消费者情绪，欧美各地停工亦会令亚太区陷入衰退，需求减弱导致的挑战相当于1997年亚洲金融风暴，预计亚太区可能要到今年稍晚时间才会出现U型复苏，今年区内经济增长只有2.2%。
对此，凯拉特·克利姆别托夫首先对中国在疫情发生以来无论是疫情防控还是提振经济的一系列举措表达了赞许，同时指出中国在亚洲区域经济复苏过程中的重要性十分显著，中国应该不断加强区域合作，带动疫情后整个亚洲区域经济的恢复与发展。
国是直通车：您认为疫情结束后亚洲地区的经济复苏应如何开展？
凯拉特·克利姆别托夫：中国政府已经出台的一些政策是非常了不起的。中国正从公共卫生危机中复苏，企业也正在恢复正常运作。
很高兴看到其他一些亚洲国家也以中国为榜样，成功地遏制了新冠病毒的传播。最重要的第一步已经迈出。我们只需要确保新冠疫情被控制住，并且不会再次出现峰值。
我确信，中国必须领导整个（亚洲）地区的发展。中国经济放缓将使本地区其他国家的发展更加复杂，这也是为什么我们必须团结起来恢复亚洲经济的增长。
区域伙伴关系将对该地区的每个国家都有利，特别是在全球经济放缓和许多其他国家和地区可能面临经济衰退的情况下。我相信，这也是中国巩固区域领导地位的绝佳机会。
“一带一路”和“数字丝绸之路”可以成为加强区域合作的最佳工具，创造许多新的就业机会，为支持新的工具和商业模式提供重要的数字基础设施。这些政策在最初的“一带一路”计划中已经有所暗示，如今考虑到新冠疫情大流行带来的灾难性冲击，对大多数国家而言，创造新就业机会、引进新产品和新服务已变得至关重要。
以下为答问原文：
TopNewsExpress： What‘s your assessment of the present global economic impact of COVID-19？
Kairat Kelimbetov：The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus has greatly affected global economy． The short-term effects of the pandemic seem devastating and there is little we can do， as the governments are focused on more immediate problem： to solve the health crisis first．
The situation is somewhat grim and short- to medium-term prospects are not very encouraging． However， there are interesting spillovers． As people cut their expenses and change their behavior， there is space for new products and business models， based mostly on providing online services． We already see a surge in online entertainment， delivery， and videoconferencing and task management services． I now have to work from home and also spend most of my time using online conferences and distributing tasks． Schools and universities are switching to online education as well．
The shift to these ways was not evolutionary， but as a result of a large external shock． People are adapting to new ways to study， work， entertain， and consume goods and services． The pandemic will be defeated sooner or later， but new technologies and new business models are here to stay． They will disrupt many existing institutions， but will also create new opportunities， especially for more agile countries． Emerging markets will have a change to adopt new technology faster．
TopNewsExpress： What will be the lasting global economic consequences of COVID-19？
Kairat Kelimbetov：The longer terms impacts are multifaceted， I will try to highlight most important ones．
Decrease in global demand means lower growth prospects for emerging markets and subsequent capital run from these countries， even though there is an abundance of financing in the world． Most countries are exercising expansionary monetary and fiscal policies， there is a lot of money in circulation， although in the short-term， money is not invested and kept in cash．
In the medium term we will see more uncertainty and low investment even though there is no shortage of capital： this crisis will be very different from the financial crisis of 2008-2009． The good thing is that China has already recovered from the decease and is slowly coming back， while Western markets have reacted positively to large stimulus programs in the US and Europe， but we still have to see whether the effects will be sustainable．
The supply chains won’t recover immediately， which means prolonged lower activity and international trade． We will have to wait and see the end of pandemic before international trade will come back to previous levels． For many countries， especially developing markets relying on exports， this will mean shortage of capital and need for correspondent adjustments． The oil price war which is happening concurrently will also add pressure for these countries． However， lower oil prices will benefit China and other importer countries．
TopNewsExpress： What could economic recovery from COVID-19 look like after the spread of the virus is contained？
Kairat Kelimbetov：I want to notice that exclusively in my opinion the economics after coronavirus pandemic will be significantly rebuilt． Such crises are a time of large-scale redistribution of the market， because supply chains ruin， and then new trade routes are built， in which new participants arise． Perhaps we will face something that will be similar to Great Depression and the role of the state in market relations will also change．
There is also another way to look at the current situation． For almost a decade we have been seeing bullish market， it was probably the longest bull run in the modern history． The market correction was inevitable， there is no surprise that the markets have reacted so sharply to the pandemic． This also means that sooner or later the markets will react and return to normal state， we’ve already seen some positive reactions on Western markets．
TopNewsExpress： Do you have any policy response proposal for Asian countries during the period of economic recovery？
Kairat Kelimbetov：The policies already introduced by the Chinese government are truly remarkable． The country is recovering from the healthcare crisis and businesses are going back to normal functioning．
It is great to see that some other Asian countries also followed Chinese example and contained the spread of the virus quite successfully． The most important first step has been made already． We only need to make sure that the COVID-19 is contained and there will be no other peaks．
I am sure， that China must lead the development of the whole region． Slowdown of Chinese economy will mean further complications for the development of other countries in the region， this is why we must all unite to restore Asian growth．
Regional partnerships will be beneficial for every country in the region， especially during the global slowdown and expected recession in many other countries and regions． I believe that this is also a perfect opportunity for China to cement its position as a regional leader．
Belt and Road Initiative and Digital Silk Road may become an optimal tool to strengthen regional cooperation， create many new jobs， and provide digital infrastructure important for supporting new instruments and business models． These policies were implied in the initial BRI plans， however， given the calamitous shock of global pandemic， creating new jobs and introducing new goods and services has become vital for most of the countries．
